AUSTIN, Texas — Texas' power grid manager now has a month-by-month look at what they're expecting for this winter if we have a severe winter storm.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) manages the power grid for the majority of Texas. ERCOT issues monthly reports forecasting the supply and demand.
The latest information, released Nov. 30, shows the resource adequacy for February 2024.
“Probabilistic modeling results indicate an elevated risk of ERCOT having to declare an EEA (Energy Emergency Alert) during the 8 a.m. peak load hour (3.2%); the risk increases to 18.3% if similar weather conditions to Winter Storm Elliott occur,” the report shows.
The Weather Channel names winter storms, whereas the World Meteorological Organization names hurricanes.
ERCOT’s data shows the probability of rolling blackouts are lower for Feb. 2024 with a 2.81% chance under normal conditions and a 14.66% probability of rolling blackouts assuming winter conditions similar to the Dec. 2022 storm.
This latest release adds to the December and January expectations for this winter.
For December, ERCOT’s data shows a 14.40% chance of controlled outages for a storm similar to Dec. 2022.
January’s forecast of 16.77% is the largest chance of controlled outages caused by a severe winter storm this winter.
“On Nov. 17, ERCOT canceled the Request for Proposals for Contracts for Capacity for Winter 2023-24. In making the decision to cancel the RFP, ERCOT weighed factors such as the costs of the program, including costs of administration, and the incremental additional complexity for the Control Room operators against the very small amount of capacity that could be provided (11.1 MW of eligible capacity) and the associated minimal reliability benefits,” ERCOT’s February report shows.