AUSTIN, Texas — Following reports of a new COVID-19 variant, KVUE spoke with Dr. Rob Watson, Baylor Scott & White's chief medical officer of the Greater Austin Region, about what doctors know and what they're still working to learn about the omicron variant.
What's the top thing people should know?
"I would say the top thing is people need to understand that we still don't know everything. I mean, this all came about very quickly, even over the last 72 hours. The variant was just identified by a South African scientist in the late part of this month. Looking back, probably the first case was in early November. We are seeing it in a number of countries now across the globe, including a couple of cases in Canada. And I think that's probably what's got people in the U.S. nervous. But I would say, right now, we need to take some time to really understand what is this going to mean. We've seen other variants, obviously. I think what has people most nervous is just what the impact of delta was on us and our communities. And so everybody has a heightened sense of awareness and a little bit of fear that there could be another delta coming along, so to speak. But I think right now it's a little early to panic, but certainly not unreasonable to be cautious."
While it has yet to be reported, what's the likelihood omicron is already in the U.S.?
"I would say from prior experience, it's high. I mean, if you listen to public health officials, they're already speculating that it probably is in the U.S. and we just haven't identified it. There's just no reason to believe with the level of global travel that we have today that we're going to be exempt from getting some cases of omicron. Now again, I would say we've had other variants in the U.S. For a variant to be dominant right now, it has to displace delta and other variants have not been able to effectively do that. So, again, we're just going to have to kind of watch and see what happens with this, but I think it'll end up in the U.S. in the coming days."
How does the vaccine stand up against the omicron variant?
"I think the scientists that are closest to this are asking us to exercise caution as we try to think through this. The thing that's concerning about omicron is, one, we're seeing it spread to a number of countries relatively quickly, and it's just the number of mutations. So it has overall about 50 mutations, somewhere, depending on what literature you look at. Thirty to 32 of those mutations are in the spike protein, and that's really kind of where the vaccine is directed. And so there's some concern that the vaccine may not be as effective against omicron. Again, I would say that's very early speculation based on what we're seeing based on the mutations, not on any sort of real life exposure to omicron and in big populations of people that are vaccinated. So everything is speculative right now. And that's why I would ask people to not get too panicked. And there's no reason to believe that the vaccine won't have some impact. People are already saying about omicron and in vaccinated populations that the cases that they are seeing are milder cases. So, again, that's the same thing we said with delta. If you're vaccinated, you may still get delta, but you won't get it as bad as other people who are unvaccinated. No reason to believe that that's going to be different with omicron at this point."
Following and heading into holiday travel, what level of concern should people be at regarding the new variant?
"I think it's good to fall back on our prior experience. Delta, by far, hit us very hard and, unfortunately, it's the same refrain you've heard us talk about before as, we need people to be vaccinated, we need people to be cautious. And people were tired of that message. But the message hasn't changed. Now the thing we have to understand about omicron is that it [was first reported] in South Africa. They've seen cases rising there. We also have to understand, though, that the vaccination rates are low compared to the U.S., so they have somewhere between 25% on the low end to maybe as high as only 30% of their population vaccinated. If you look at their health care population, it's somewhere in the 27% range, so you're seeing much lower vaccination rates … We know the global nature of this virus, it travels, unfortunately. And so I think people just need to continue to exercise caution, get vaccinated. If you're not trying to be around people that are vaccinated, just be safe with your decisions as you go into the holidays."
How does South Africa's vaccination rate compare to the U.S.'s rate?
"About 68% first dose, about 59% fully vaccinated in the U.S., and that's comparable to what we're seeing in Texas as a whole."
With a new variant in play, should we expect another surge?
"It's hard to say. I mean, the numbers have come down, but they haven't come down as far as they did after prior surges. So I think we all have a little bit of heightened anxiety that we're going to see the numbers tick up just based on what you said, people are going to start to gather more going into the holidays. It's human nature that we've probably relaxed some of the things that we did in the past going into that and we want to be around each other. I think we'll see numbers climb a little bit going into the holidays if omicron doesn't become significant. Will it be a full-blown surge? It's just too early to tell at this point. But I would tell people, please exercise caution. Do everything you can to protect yourself. And if you're responsible about those choices, then I still think you can have time with your loved ones around the holidays as long as everyone is safe."
Is there a certain age group getting hit harder by the omicron variant at this point?
"I think it's still too soon. Everybody is scrambling right now to try to pattern this particular variant. And they are saying right now they're seeing it more in a younger population. But again, that correlates with the higher level of unvaccinated. The age correlation may be a little bit of a false equivalency, and it's really based on the vaccination status, but I think it's too hard to tell. Like I said, even in our own country, if you look at vaccination rates between our 65 and above and our younger population, you see a difference there. So we'll just have to see. I think it still points to the same thing. It's going to take a few weeks, if not a little longer, to kind of really understand is this what this virus is going to do. And in the meantime, people just need to continue to ask themselves, 'Have I done everything I can to protect myself?' And recognize that, we may not be as far beyond this as we would hope. I'm not saying we're not, but we don't know yet is the unfortunate answer."
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