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Early July was quiet for the tropics, and many may have even forgotten it was Hurricane Season. However, things are now trending more active, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently keeping tabs on a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.
The tropical disturbance that will impact the Central Texas forecast late week and into the weekend is currently in The Gulf of Mexico. This system is only given a 40% chance of development, but still warrants watching over the next few days, especially as it continues to move over the Gulf where conditions are a bit more favorable.
The latest computer models show the area of disorganized circulation on the Texas coast Friday morning with rain arriving to our KVUE counties Friday afternoon.
Even if this system is never able to organize, the pool of tropical moisture associated with it will likely bring rain Friday evening through the weekend. This would provide the elevated moisture needed for higher shower and storm chances.
The latest computer models are showing a decent coverage of rain for Central Texas on both Friday and Saturday due to this system. The current forecast calls for a 40% chance of rain on Friday and a 60% chance of rain on Saturday.
If current model trends play out, the higher rainfall totals would remain south and southeast of the KVUE area.
The latest rainfall forecast from the European model calls for upwards of an inch of rainfall over the next seven days for much of the area, with lower numbers across the Hill County.
Keep in mind there is still uncertainty with this forecast, so the location of the highest rainfall totals could change. The bottom line, for now, is that this system may at least increase the chances for beneficial rain.
Make sure to stay up to date with the KVUE Storm Team for the latest on this tropical wave in the coming days and download the KVUE app for the latest weather alerts.
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