AUSTIN, Texas — Point spreads aren't an exact science, but definitely give an insider's perspective into how much a team is favored in a particular matchup with another.
In the University of Texas' season opener against the University of Texas at El Paso, they were 43-point favorites. I did not predict that would happen, as seen in the KVUE weekly pick 'em, and boy did the Longhorns prove me wrong.
UT covered that 43-point spread and then some, beating the Miners 59-3 in the team's home opener. Now, another point spread milestone is on the books.
According to Longhorn Network analyst Alex Loeb, UT is favored over Texas Tech University in an away matchup by 16.5 points as of Sunday, Sept. 20, which he reports is the highest point spread the Longhorns have ever been favored by when playing in Lubbock.
So, what is the likelihood the Longhorns will cover that spread?
Well, let's look at the history between the Longhorns and Red Raiders.
In the past five seasons, UT is 3-2 against Texas Tech and has won two straight matchups. The last time Texas lost to Texas Tech was in 2017, when the Red Raiders took down the Longhorns 27-23. This was also the only time a Tom Herman-led Longhorns team has lost to the Red Raiders. In these past five games between the Longhorns and Red Raiders, the average margin of victory is 9.4 points per game. Every game came down to a single possession except for one outlier: last season's 49-24 Longhorns win on Senior Night.
Texas Tech enters the matchup 1-0 after narrowly edging out Houston Baptist at home, 35-33. ESPN's Football Power Index also predicts a 91.6% chance the Longhorns win in Lubbock as of Monday, Sept. 21.
Tom Herman is determined to not allow his team to overestimate the Red Raiders, however.
"Just because a team won by two points in week one, doesn't mean they're not capable of beating you by 21," Herman told the media in Monday's weekly press conference.
The status of Texas Tech's star running back may also be in question. Local media reports say Sarodorick Thompson has been arrested and booked into the Lubbock County Jail. There is no word on what charges Thompson faces.
Texas and Texas Tech are scheduled to kickoff at 2:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 26.
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