AUSTIN, Texas — The University of Texas at Austin has released a new report estimating COVID-19 numbers as students arrive for the first week of school. In that report, analysts estimate that up to 183 students could arrive coronavirus-positive.
According to the report, there are more than 50,000 students currently enrolled at the university, with an estimated 80% from Texas, 93% from the U.S. and 7% from abroad.
To come up with its estimates, analysts assumed that 12,000 students are currently in Austin and 10,000 more will be returning by the first day of classes, which is Aug. 26. Accordingly, they estimate that more than half of students elected to remain in their home regions for the fall semester.
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Next, they used COVID-19 data through Aug. 13 to estimate the prevalence of coronavirus in Austin and the home counties of returning students. They developed the following figures:
- The estimated prevalence of the virus in the Austin area as of Aug. 13 is 0.33%.
- The expected prevalence of the virus among the 22,000 returning UT students is 0.50%.
- Between 82 and 183 students could arrive infected during the first week of classes.
- If all students were tested within the first week, between 156 and 341 would be expected to test positive.
- If each positive student has 10 or more traceable contacts, then thousands of other students would require immediate testing.
- In gatherings of 10 or more students, there's a 4.9% chance that at least one student will arrive infected; for a gathering of 100, this increases to 39.4%.
- For a gathering of 1,000 students, an estimated five students will arrive positive; for a gathering of 10,000, this increases to 50.
The full report can be viewed here. The university's COVID-19 safety plan for fall 2020 can be viewed here.
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