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DeAndre Jordan's stock reportedly is falling like Hummer sales, which tells you all you need to know about the NBA draft.

Only a couple of weeks ago, Jordan was a lottery baby. Scouts raved about his impressive skills for a man so large.

But then a few NBA clubs got a look at him in workouts and decided maybe the line from his only season at Texas A&M wasn't a typo.

For the record: 7.9 points, six rebounds, 43.7 percent from the free throw line.

Given his limited minutes, they aren't bad numbers, either, especially for a teenager.

But do they justify a lottery pick? Or even a late first-round selection?

And if Jordan's draft status is based solely on potential without much concern about productivity, who's fooling whom?

First, some disclaimers: Anyone who has a chance to make a million dollars should probably consider it. Yes, the NBA tossed colleges a bone by making kids ineligible until after their freshman year. And colleges should be more than just training grounds for the NBA, too.

Now that we've covered all the postures, let's look at life's realities, as demonstrated this season by the latest NBA champs.

Danny Ainge grew tired of waiting on kids who'd never played college basketball and traded a pack of them for another guy who skipped college. The difference was that Kevin Garnett proved his pedigree long ago.

With Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen leading, the Celtics gave the rest of the league a path to follow.

Local angle: Critics carped that the Mavs cashed in their future to get Jason Kidd, who didn't deliver anything close to a title. You can correctly argue that Kidd wasn't the answer. He may not be this season, either. But careful with complaints about trading the future, especially if you're dealing from the back half of the draft.

Ever checked out the Mavs' draft history? Including draft-day trades, the keepers from this decade were Josh Howard, Etan Thomas and Eduardo Najera. In '98, they got Dirk Nowitzki and Greg Buckner, a veritable draft-day bonanza. And in '92, '93 and '94, they got Jim Jackson, Jamal Mashburn (and Lucious Harris) and Kidd, respectively.

Bottom line: Even Jerry Jones got more production out of his late '90s drafts than the Mavs did.

But it's not as if the Mavs are bad judges on draft day, or worse than most teams. This is just the way the system works. Or doesn't.

Drafts are the way to build for most pro sports teams, but only in the NBA and NFL are first-rounders expected to contribute immediately. And an NFL rookie's chances are better, if for no other reason than because of the opportunities on special teams.

The reason so few players make it in the NBA is simple: You can only play five guys at a time, and coaches tend to play the best ones.

Or put another way, if you don't have an NBA-caliber skill to contribute right away, you won't play. Or you'll end up in the D-League, where the Mavericks' Brandon Bass was one of the rare success stories.

Maybe you read where Don Nelson calls former Woodrow Wilson star Anthony Randolph a potential "star" in this draft. Here's hoping he's closer on Randolph than he was on Leon Smith.

Even at that, Randolph's freshman numbers at LSU were better than what Jordan posted at A&M.

His most telling stat: a total of 29 minutes in his last five games as a collegian.

In a perfect world, Jordan would have returned to College Station for his sophomore year. He'd grow up some. Get stronger. Tougher, too. Discover defense. Work on another post move. Benefit from a real point guard. Develop a jump shot. Make a few three throws.

Consider coming back for his junior year.

Come to think of it, that's not a perfect solution, either. But it's better than where the kid is headed now.