AUSTIN -- A new poll in the Texas governor's race shows a continued surge for Houston-area businesswoman Debra Medina.
Experts say it makes clear that this race will go to a run-off; what's not clear: who the governor might face.
While former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin was rallying support for Gov. Rick Perry in the Houston suburbs, pollsters were on the phone with Texas voters.
The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling. It indicates Gov. Perry’s support fell a few percentage points from the last publicly released poll which was conducted by a different organization and using a different methodology.
However, Perry still leads the Republican race, now with 39 percent of those surveyed, down from 44 percent in the last poll.
Neither number is enough to win his party's nomination out-right, so this race is likely to go to a run-off. But who would the governor face?
Twenty-eight percent of those surveyed favor Sen. Hutchison; Twenty-four percent favor Debra Medina.
"With Sen. Hutchison, what she needs to do it survive this first round a run-off is guaranteed,” said Brian Smith, Ph.D., a political science professor at St. Edward’s University in Austin.
Six months ago, political watchers like Smith didn't expect they'd be using words like "survive" when referring to the state's popular senior senator.
The movement fueled in part by Palin, however, has made it hard for Hutchison to run.
"When you look at the poll numbers, what people don't like is Washington, DC,” Smith said.
If Hutchison doesn't survive the primary, Smith explains it will require Perry’s campaign to pivot, shifting focus from Hutchison to Medina.
"If Medina does make it to the run off then she's got to worry about the full force of the Perry campaign, the Perry negative ad juggernaut that we know he's capable of producing,” he said.
Sen. Hutchison’s campaign remains optimistic, though. They point out that most Republican voters surveyed intend to cast a ballot against Perry.
