Hundreds of lay offs in the manufacturing industry in Austin this year are to blame for a 108-percent increase in the number of commercial foreclosures for 2009, the highest of any Texas city.
"I would suspect that this trend is going to continue in 2010 and 2011", predicts Angelos Angelou, an Austin economist who for the past 25 years has held an annual economic forecast breakfast for Austin in January.
"500-billion dollars in commercial mortgage loans are coming up for refinancing and another 800-plus billion in 2011 and with lower values and lower occupancy rates I just don't know who is going to refinance those loans. A number will have to be foreclosed on. Others will have to put more equity into properties", added Angelou.
According to Foreclosure Listing Service Incorporated a total of 851 Austin commercial properties filed for foreclosure in 2009. That compares to 410 in 2008.
Angelou says there is a positive side to the news.
"I don't know if the average person is affected. I think there will be potentially great buys for investors who have cash. I think you'll be looking at lower rents overall in a depressed market and more over you may have some renters considering buying some of these properties", said Angelou.
"I think the economy is improving and we are out of a recession but the average American on the street does not feel that the recovery is just around the corner or that it has happened. The second half of 2010 we're going to have a good recovery, jobs will begin to be created in the economy but the first half could be along the same lines that we've had in the last two quarters", added Angelou.
More details, forecasts and predictions on Austin's economy including real estate issues will be released on January 21st during the 2010/2011 Austin Economic Forecast sponsored by Angelou Economics.
For more details click here: http://www.angeloueconomics.com/forecast_2010_11.html
