AUSTIN, Texas — Over the weekend, Austin entered the threshold for Stage 2 of the City's risk-based coronavirus guidelines. However, Austin residents are officially in Stage 3.
COVID-19 metrics in Austin-Travis County are looking up, but health leaders worry that if the city moves to Stage 2, that could mean another winter surge in cases.
Since the start of the pandemic, the UT Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium has been working with Austin Public Health to help inform moves to different stages of the risk-based guidelines. Dr. Desmar Walkes, Austin's top health authority, said at a briefing on Oct. 26 that the UT modeling group predicts that if Austin moves to Stage 2, the city may see two COVID-19 surges in the November and December timeframe.
"And it's postulated that that may be because of the decreased measures of masking and social distancing," Walkes said.
Masking guidance changes significantly between Stage 3 and Stage 2.
In Stage 3, vaccinated people are urged to wear a mask except at outdoor gatherings and while dining or shopping, while partially vaccinated and unvaccinated people are urged to wear a mask at all times.
However, under Stage 2, vaccinated people are only urged to wear a mask when traveling. Partially vaccinated and unvaccinated people are still urged to wear a mask at all times.
In the winter months, flu infections are also a worry for health leaders in terms of potential strains on local hospital systems. Health leaders said it's imperative that residents get the flu vaccine in addition to the COVID-19 vaccine.
Health leaders are concerned about what they're seeing in other countries as they relax masking and social distancing. The epidemiology team with APH is monitoring the COVID-19 situation in the UK and Europe. The team has determined that increases in COVID-19 cases in countries there are happening due to a decrease in masking and a decrease in the number of people who are not receiving the vaccine.
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